![]() However, I think it is time to exorcise those demons and back a UT program that is on the rise and ready to explode on a big stage. Pick games every week and compete for prizes! Make Your PicksĪll bettors have kryptonite teams, and Pitt has been one for me in recent years. Granted, Gators dynamic quarterback Anthony Richardson is always a play away from the end zone, but I still anticipate a tightly-played half before the game opens up. Napier's attack has more of a grinding effect with a potential for second-half dividends and not as much big-play ability early on. ESPN college football analyst Greg McElroy explained this week on Daily Wager (shameless plug) how the Gators run the ball differently under first-year coach Billy Napier, attacking the Utah defensive front last week with a direct approach, as opposed to a misdirection style under previous coach Dan Mullen. This ranked SEC matchup fits the formula for a first-half under. 12 Florida Gators (first half under 25.5) I encourage you to at least track this philosophy. But I do prefer the intensity and slight predictability of a first half rather than the looseness of late-game antics in both tight games and blowouts. ![]() "It just looks like when these in-game totals get really low and it looks like there's nothing happening, the scoring starts to blow up."Īgain, it's a working theory. The algorithms that determine live betting lines do not account for certain variables and thus present an opportunity to bet a live total that has lowered too much. #VALUE FOOTBALL BETTING TIP OF THE DAY PRO#Another pro bettor told me this week that he too has noticed slower starts with more frequency but also sees value - in the form of in-game wagering. He's convinced that players and coaches are now more likely to chase stats for the backups. ![]() ![]() One pro bettor complained to me just days ago about NIL money influencing the end of games. So, if first halves are played differently than second halves, then we should theoretically have an opportunity to uncover betting value in the first half.Īnd I am not alone. So, to reiterate, first-half betting lines are not calculated separately in a vacuum and only using first-half statistics from throughout the season. After that, the first-half spread and total are commensurate. Now for the betting nuance that provides money-making opportunities a game's point spread and over/under are computed using data points from the two teams' full-game statistics.
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